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At 10:16 a.m. the forecast graphics for Thursday April 14, 2011 became available on the TornadoTarget.com web site. They indicated that a tornado may strike the small town of Atoka, OK at between 7:15 and 7:30 p.m....over 9 hours later a large, violent tornado did hit Atoka, OK at 7:23 p.m. The custom computer model run indicated a tornado outbreak in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Two proprietary indices; APRWX TOR developed by Andrew Revering and CEHI by Shawn Hewitt focused on two areas in particular. One was northern Oklahoma and one was southern Oklahoma. Both areas did confirm tornadoes very near their respective target areas, but this case study focuses on the southern target. Below are animations of the forecast output issued at 10:16 am. The city hit by the tornado, Atoka, OK, is marked. Note the forecast has the tornado going through Atoka at between 7:15 and 7:30 p.m.
The National Weather Service has this entry in their Local Storm Reports:
7:23 PM NUMEROUS STORM CHASER AND MEDIA REPORTS THAT A LARGE TORNADO MOVED THROUGH THE CITIES OF TUSHKA AND ATOKA. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF BOTH LOCATIONS. |
